Key Insights

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1. Political Risk is Now Legal Risk.
Geopolitical events, from supply chain shocks to sanctions or security threats, translate into legal risks: contract breakage, employee travel safety, and compliance with rapidly changing regulations. Accordingly, almost a quarter of GCs now have government affairs reporting to them, cementing their role as the company's chief risk holder.
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2. The Forecasting Mindset Focuses on Reaction Functions.
The trick to reliable geopolitical forecasting is not predicting the event itself, but mapping out stakeholder reaction functions beforehand. By building a "controlled experiment" on how key political players will react to hypothetical outcomes, analysts can visualize the most likely legal and policy outcomes as the event draws near.
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3. The Erosion of Law is Global and Local.
International law is faltering (e.g., countries ignoring ICC indictments) and national law is eroding (e.g., broad presidential immunity claims, nationwide injunctions). Locally, this manifests in issues like permitted thresholds for shoplifting. This erosion forms the backdrop against which corporations must operate.
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4. Companies Should Speak Less and Be Consistent.
Companies often score "own goals" by speaking out on political issues to chase social media momentum (e.g., "We stand with Ukraine" followed by an immediate legal fire sale of Russian assets). If an issue is not fundamental to the company's core values or mission, the safest, most consistent strategy is to talk less, smile more, and avoid hypocrisy.
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5. The Strategy of Building in Rwanda.
Hence established its core engineering team in Rwanda due to access to top talent (Carnegie Mellon Africa campus graduates), negligible corruption, and fast internet. This strategy is driven by the insight that even with infinite money, a startup cannot acquire the top 1% of talent in saturated tech hubs like Los Angeles, but it can successfully recruit the best in emerging markets by offering global opportunities and pay

6. Closing Insight‍

You are the ultimate holder of risk. The most effective step you can take today is moving from a defensive position (reacting to law) to a strategic one (anticipating how political noise becomes legal fact) to guide the business through an increasingly volatile world.